AAA and Fiscal Policy

December 5, 2011

Daraius

Many people mock the two-armed economists, especially as these economists pontificate on the effectiveness of the most recent fiscal and monetary policy solutions to the great contraction. However, this economist firmly believes that the fiscal policy solutions proffered by both parties can and should coexist as they address two fundamentally different problems in our economy—contracting short-term economic growth and sustaining long-term economic growth.

The first and most immediate problem was present when President Obama took office in February 2009; the economy was heading south rapidly. The only indicators which were rising were foreclosures and unemployment.  Our nation was in an economic death spiral. Something needed to be done quickly to stimulate the economy; please note the choice of word: “stimulate,” not “sustain.” I argue, “go big or go home” in regard to the stimulus. (Obviously, my opinion was not sought on this question.) This situation is analogous to discovering your car battery has died. You call AAA to jump start your car. This is a short-term solution as you will buy a new battery rather than continually hope for the timely availability of AAA to jump start your car each time you decide to drive.

At the core of the Republican economic policy, corporations—which believe they have a God-given right to pollute, pay their workers what they want, ship jobs overseas, and pay no taxes, yet they expect subsidies for bringing low-paying jobs to a region, demand a highly educated workforce, and expect that their industry receives federal subsidies for their product—are calling for smaller government, lower taxes, and less regulation. While I agree with these core principles for the most part, I do have qualms about getting rid of regulations. There are numerous anecdotal stories about how government regulations stifled businesses, but we are currently experiencing what happens when there is too little government regulation—mortgage crisis, Deepwater horizon, Bernie Madoff, and Enron, just to name a few.

Photo credit: Renjith Krishnan

My editorializing notwithstanding, the Republican economic platform makes perfect sense to sustain our economy over the long haul. Less is more. The role of the government is to ensure that property rights are safeguarded, laws are passed and obeyed, individuals can engage in commerce freely, and tax policy does not discourage individuals from working harder. On the other hand, the Democratic platform of spending like drunken sailors on leave makes perfect sense to stimulate the economy. Both policies can coexist and should be implemented.

What is stifling a speedy economic recovery vis-à-vis fiscal policy is the uncertainty of government action. When Congress cannot pass a budget until the very last minute with threat of a government shutdown looming or are willing to allow the U.S. to be downgraded, a great deal of uncertainty is created. And while uncertainty makes for exciting movies, novel endings, and thrill rides, it is completely inappropriate for long-term business planning. This is the environment in which we are currently, and until both parties realize that their policies can coexist and that acceptance of one or the other does not imply that they are violating their core political beliefs, the economy will continue to limp along.

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Posted by Daraius Irani

Maryland, the deficit and the debt limit

June 21, 2011

Daraius

Many people have heard me state that Maryland’s economy is based on “Eds, Beds, Feds, and Meds,” and this is one of the reasons why Maryland has suffered comparatively less during this most recent recession.   However, this insulation from economic events may be coming to an end and may have a severe impact on Maryland’s economy. Maryland by virtue of geography has become the home of many federal agencies, and by virtue of its highly educated workforce Maryland has received a disproportionate share of federal funding in research, cyber-security, defense, medicine, and other areas.

While the debate in Washington rages regarding the role of government and the need to shrink it, we Marylanders should feel especially vulnerable.  The Federal government directly employs approximately 130,000 civilian or over 5% of Maryland’s labor force. Moreover, Maryland is home to eleven agencies as well as ten military installations with over 80,000 military personnel, and the state receives over 1.5 billion dollars in federal research dollars, over ten billion dollars in federal expenditures, and over twelve billion dollars in private sector contracting opportunities. Finally, numerous Maryland citizens work for the federal government in Washington, D.C. and Northern Virginia.

It has been estimated that for every federal job in Maryland, two other private sector jobs are created. These private sector jobs include IT contractors, teachers, retail clerks and other professions.

A 10% cut in federal employment could potentially  result in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in Maryland, or about 1.6% of the total workforce.

Moreover, the federal workforce tends to be older on average and therefore will likely have a higher salary. As a result, a 10% loss in jobs will also have a disproportionate impact on Maryland’s income tax collections of those federal workers who live in Maryland.

To lessen the state’s dependency on the federal government, Maryland needs to encourage the growth of private sector jobs and companies.  There are hurdles from public policy to perception regarding Maryland’s business climate and tax rates. Hopefully, this is outweighed by our highly educated workforce. According the Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation (DLLR), Maryland created only 4,400 net new private sector jobs between April 2010 and April 2011 (a growth rate of 0.2%), a very modest number, to say the least .

This growth rate suggests that Maryland is in a precarious position in these latest deficit and debt discussions. Maryland’s economy would perform better if the federal cuts were targeted towards entitlement programs—Medicare and Social Security, for example—rather than agencies (NIH, NIST, DoD, etc.) as cuts to entitlement programs would be felt nationwide while cuts to agencies would be more acutely felt in Maryland. While I am not advocating government for government’s sake, we Marylander’s need to be aware of just how closely tied our economy is to the Federal government.

Image credit: World Travel Guide

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Posted by Daraius Irani

Baltimore Horse Racing, a valued tradition and economic driver!

May 5, 2011

Daraius

Throughout the history of Baltimore and Maryland, there have been many long-standing traditions and venues that have gone by the wayside as well as many familiar faces we have lost.  Remember the days of streetcars running in Baltimore,  shopping at Hutzler’s department stores, going to the Enchanted Forest Theme Park , dining at Haussner’s  Restaurant surrounded by the vast number of paintings, attending a game at Memorial Stadium or even catching a glimpse of Mayor Schaeffer in and around the city?  In the land of pleasant living, the loss of these icons of our past makes us feel less special – as if a piece of us is gone for good.  Granted there may be new icons replacing these lost icons, but it is far from the same.

Every spring as the flowers bloom and the smell of fresh cut grass fills the air, all of Maryland becomes acutely aware that Preakness is around the corner.  This year will mark the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.  While this event has become less about the actual horse race and more about an event to be seen at, it is still, at its essence, an important part of Maryland’s history as well as our national history.  It is after all, the second leg of the crown jewel of Thoroughbred horse racing, the Triple Crown.  Not only is this event nationally broadcasted, it generates a great deal of economic activity from the millineries to the horse breeders.  It is estimated that Preakness generates between $40 and $60 million dollars in economic activity annually. It also brings to the city anyone who is anyone in Baltimore’s (Maryland’s) social circles as well as college students who invade the infield more for the party than the horse race.  It is truly a unique Baltimore (Maryland) event.

While the Preakness Stakes is a highly visible event nationally and an economic boom to the industry, it just may not be enough by itself to continue to support the overall horse industry in Maryland.  Based upon published estimates, the economic impact of the horse industry is $1.6 billion, with over half of that generated through racing.   Every year, a renewed debate occurs regarding the status of the horse racing industry in Maryland.  Given the challenges the industry in Maryland faces, from larger purses in other states to the presence of slots and table games at these out of state horse racing venues, the industry is struggling.  This has manifested itself in the form of proposals to shorten the racing season as well as the closure of some venues.

While many may wonder whether horse racing in Maryland or Maryland’s horse industry fits in with our “Eds, Feds, Meds and Beds” economy, it not only fits in, it is one of the great icons that helps to define Baltimore and Maryland.  However, if we do not take deliberative action to preserve this industry, we may find that one of our last remaining icons is on the ash heap of history.

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Posted by Daraius Irani

Are We There Yet? 2011 Economic Outlook Conference Wrap-Up

February 28, 2011

Raquel Frye

It’s a new year and a chance for us to present our yearly outlook for the economy. The Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI) hosted its 14th annual Economic Outlook Conference on February 16, 2011 at the BWI Hilton Hotel.  As in years past, the conference provided a platform to present RESI’s economic overview and forecast. The theme for this year’s conference was Are We There Yet? The phrase—commonly used by kids during long car trips—highlighted the question mark surrounding the economic recovery and our eagerness to finally bounce back from the woes that have afflicted over the last three years.

There are many indicators that help us gauge whether the economy is back on track and while many continue to show signs of distress (i.e. the labor market) the road ahead is looking a lot brighter than it was a year ago.  While we may not be “there” just yet, at least we know that we are not headed in the opposite direction anymore.  If you are interested in seeing the presentation and getting a little more detail please see this link.

As I indicated during my last post, this year, RESI participated in a crowd-sourcing activity that involved getting feedback from attendees regarding what they would do if they had power over fiscal, monetary and housing policies.   The top answers submitted by attendees were revealed family feud style.   In my opinion, it was a great opportunity to learn about what people feel are the best ways to tackle the significant challenges that we are facing. 

In addition to DECO staff, the program was composed of several other distinguished guests.  For instance, Robert Hannon, President and CEO of Anne Arundel Economic Development Corporation welcomed us to Anne Arundel County with some facts and jokes.  Following the outlook presentation, Kathleen Snyder, President and CEO of the Maryland Chamber of Commerce gave us an overview of this year’s legislative session and the bills that the Chamber was supporting and opposing.  Last but not least, David Beck, Senior Vice President and Regional Executive and Robert Carpenter, Lead Financial Economist both from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond gave a very educational presentation about the Reserve’s dual mandate of promoting price stability and full employment.  They began their segment by giving a broad overview of the Reserve’s policy options and provided data and graphs to illustrate how the Fed’s balance sheet has evolved since the beginning of the recession. 

While I thoroughly enjoyed all the speakers that day, my favorite people that day were a group of extremely bright students.   As a special treat, we had several members of an AP Economics course from Arundel High School in attendance.  As someone who cares about economics education, I was delighted to see a group of students who seemed so genuinely interested in the presentations and eager to ask eloquent and thought-provoking questions.  I can only hope that we’ll be seeing these young people joining the ranks of economists in the near future!

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Posted by Raquel Frye

VIDEO: We Want You!

February 3, 2011

Raquel

To give us your opinion!  Have you ever fantasized about what policies you would put in place in order to get the economy rolling again?  No?! Perhaps it’s something that only we economists like to do in our spare time.  I know I have plenty of ideas and suggestions.

Of course, it’s easy to be an armchair quarterback when it comes to difficult decisions but I think having an open dialogue where ideas and policies are challenged and discussed is extremely important.   In order for policies to have a shot at being successful, they should not be formed in a vacuum far from the people who must deal with the repercussions on a daily basis.

As part of our Economic Outlook Conference this year, we are asking your opinion and we really want to hear it!  You know what they say – sharing is caring. When you register for the conference, please take a few minutes to fill out three brief questions. Your answers will be gathered and shared during the conference in a fun way (hint: it will involve audience participation).   Here are the questions as they appear on our conference page:

  • If you were in charge, what policies/programs/legislation would you put in place to lower unemployment?
  • If you were in charge what policies/programs/legislation would you put in place to lower the deficit?
  • How would you address the challenges facing the real estate market from underwater mortgages to the shadow inventory of homes?”

Even if you can’t attend this year’s conference (which is unfortunate) we are still seeking your input  You can submit your responses right away—HERE!

Check out what some local experts “would do” if they were in charge.

 

Hope to see you all at the Economic Outlook Conference on February 16th!

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Posted by Raquel Frye

From an Economist’s point of view baggage fees are a GOOD idea

January 20, 2011

Daraius

As I began reflecting upon this past holiday season, I realized that many of us flew to our destination via commercial airlines and many of us not only paid for ourselves but for the privilege of having luggage accompany us to our final destination.   We have reacted indignantly when we have heard or read about another fee the airlines are charging us; from fees for boarding early or using the lavatory to fees for checking in luggage, including carry-on luggage.

However, as an economist, I applaud these efforts as airlines are establishing a pricing structure which enables consumers to choose the precise mix of airline services that fit their needs and budgets. From an economist’s view, this pricing structure is very efficient as it forces individuals to reveal their willingness to pay for different levels of services-remember, what did your parents always ask you before you left for a long car ride?  From an airlines perspective, the ability or the increased ability to charge a different price to each person depending on whether they prefer an aisle seat or emergency exit row seat, how many pieces of luggage they have, whether they want to eat and perhaps whether they want to use the bathroom or not better serves their bottom line.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2009 airlines racked up $13.5 billion in what are called a-la-carte fees, a 43% jump over the prior year. Leading the charge for the a-la-carte fees were United Airlines, American Airlines and Delta Airlines each racking up over $1.4 billion in 2009.  Moreover, these fees were the reason why many airlines were in the black in the most recent reporting period.  Many reports are surfacing that for 2011, the airlines may introduce (if they have not already) additional fees such as:

  • Infant fees
  • In person check in
  • Using a credit card
  • Checked bag fees by the pound
  • Name change fees
  • No more refunds if a fare goes down
  • Carry-on bag fees
  • Fare lock-in fees
  • Internet “convenience fee”

While this trend is likely to continue for many airlines, some airlines are capitalizing on the ire of air passengers about this policy.  To wit, Southwest Air’s ad campaign of “bags fly free” or their newest ad revealing the fees that other airlines charge for changing your ticket seem to be working as Southwest has enjoyed another year of profitability , its 37th year of profitability.

Photo Credit: Southwest Airlines Flickr

So before you plan your next holiday, make sure you pack light, leave your baby at home, wear multiple layers of clothing and stuff your pockets with what you would have had in your carry- on bag, pay for the trip in cash, don’t book your ticket in person but don’t use the internet to book your ticket either.  Other than that, have a great flight!

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Posted by Daraius Irani

2010 Economic Review: Impacts and Setbacks

January 3, 2011

Raquel

As we are approach the end of the year, Thomas and I thought this would be a good time to reflect on key economic events that happened during 2010.  Let’s start with health care reform.  In March, after months of bitter debate, President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act—more commonly known as the health care reform.  The law includes many provisions including prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage or refusing claims based on pre-existing conditions, providing subsidies for insurance premiums and establishing a new competitive private health insurance market.  Aside from the impact to the health care industry and uninsured individuals, the act will also have overall economic impacts.   Although the actual impacts are cause for debate, according to the Whitehouse’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), we should see a number of positive impacts.  Below is a summary of the findings as outlined on the Council’s website.

  • Slowing the annual growth rate of health care costs by 1.5 percent would increase real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by over 2 percent in 2020 and nearly 8 percent in 2030.
  • For a typical family of four, cost savings imply income gains of $2,600 by 2020 and $10,000 by 2030.
  • Slowing the increasing cost of health care would lower the unemployment rate by approximately one-quarter of a percentage point for a number of years.

We must note that due to the complexities of the bill and all the possible ramifications across many sectors of the economy, this is just an overview of some of the expectations.    What it comes down to in the end is that, good or bad, businesses and people will be affected by this reform for years to come.

Photo Credit: T. Al Nakib

Another significant economic event during 2010 was the Federal Reserve Bank’s announcement that it would purchase approximately $600 billion worth of long-term Treasury bonds and assets by mid-2011 (also known as quantitative easing), in an attempt to stimulate a flagging and sluggish economy.  The Federal Reserve Bank has the dual role of keeping unemployment rate and inflation low (or at least at a reasonable level) via the means of monetary policy.  Short-term interest rates, the Fed’s usual means of monetary policy, were at nearly 0 percent and with the unemployment rate still hovering near 10.0 percent; the Fed had to resort to new methods.    Ben Bernanke, the current Federal Reserve Board of Governor’s Chairman, released an Op-Ed in the Washington post explaining the committee’s decision.

This approach [quantitative easing] eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again.  Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate this additional action.  Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth…. we will review the purchase program regularly to ensure it is working as intended and to assess whether adjustments are needed as economic conditions change.

Which leads us to one of the last battles that have been raging in Congress over the last few weeks.  As their expiration date was looming, Bush-era tax cuts as well as the extension of jobless benefits came to the forefront of political debate.  President Obama worked with congressional leaders on a tax cut deal that would ensure the extension of both.  The deal was mired by opposition particularly by Democrats.  However, late Thursday night, the House of Representatives gave the final approval and the bill was signed into law on Friday afternoon.

There are a number of tax breaks associated with a bill that will put additional money in our pockets.  For example, as a result of the payroll tax cuts, a worker with annual income of $40,000 would save about $800 a year. A worker with $70,000 in income would save $1,400.  The key in determining the overall impacts of these tax cuts will be just how much of that money is spent—further stimulating the economy—and how much will be used  for savings or to pay down existing debt.

As you can see, up until the last minute, several developments had a major impact on 2010 but will have a much stronger impact as we go forward.   What we all hope for in 2011 is a lot more positive economic activity to blog about.

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Posted by Raquel Frye

MEDA’s Fall Conference on the Maryland Health Care Industry

October 6, 2010

Thomas

On October 21st, 2010 the Maryland Economic Development Association (MEDA) will organize a conference on the business of health care in Maryland – a timely topic as 2010 has been marked with intense discussion on the enactment of a sweeping federal health care law (i.e. the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act or Obamacare).   The conference though will not focus on the new regulations made by the new health care bill but the Maryland health care industry and its economic impact on the state economy.

I communicated with MEDA’s Executive Director Pamela Ruff to learn more about MEDA.  MEDA is a nonprofit organization of economic development professionals.  Their mission is to enhance the knowledge and skills of its members and encourages partnerships and networking among those committed to bringing jobs and investment to Maryland.  Established in 1961, MEDA members promote the economic well being of Maryland by working to improve the state’s business climate and the professionalism of those in the field of economic development. Towson University is a member and sponsor of MEDA and Dyan Brasington—the Vice President for Economic and Community Outreach (DECO) at Towson University—is a past president of MEDA and currently serves as the Chair of the Council of Past Presidents.  The MEDA membership includes economic development practitioners employed by government, business, chambers of commerce and other professionals with an interest in the economy of Maryland.  Through its regular meetings, special programs and projects, members address such diverse issues as local planning, workforce, transportation, international trade, tourism and finance.

The Fall 2010 Conference (the Business of Health Care – An Economic Driver for Maryland) may be attended by anyone interested in the health care industry, ranging from an IT development, real estate development, research, or service perspective.  The conference will include several speakers from the private, academic and public sectors providing facts on the Maryland health care industry and diverse opinions on possibilities and challenges for businesses to grow in the health care industry.  The health care industry in Maryland is indeed a large one as the employment level in the health care and social assistance sector was almost 319,000 in 2009 (representing 13% of total Maryland employment), employment growth from 2008 To 2009 was 3.2% (one of the few sectors to add jobs in the State) and the industry generated 8% of total Maryland GDP in 2008.   After an overview of the industry in Maryland, the conference will include two subsequent panels:

  • Healthcare businesses – Info Tech (IT) opportunities and Hurdles
  • How the healthcare and bio industries are developing

The conference will conclude with a luncheon keynote on the challenges and opportunities of Maryland’s health care delivery system.

While most of the discussion in media nowadays is on laws and regulations in the health care industry, this conference is more centered on business opportunities and job growth occurring in the sector.  The conference will be a great opportunity to learn more about the opportunities and challenges of the Maryland health care industry as well as network with influential professionals who have years of expertise in the sector.

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Posted by Past Bloggers

Examining the immigration debate from a workforce-economics perspective

September 13, 2010

Dr. Daraius Irani

Immigration has been a contentious issue since the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock and declared this land their land.  Therefore, it is not unusual that the issue of immigration has been raised recently, most notably with the passage of the law in Arizona requiring police officers to check the immigrant status of individuals.  Many politicians from around the nation have proposed ordinances for their states or localities declaring them a non-sanctuary site or emulating the new law in Arizona.

Arguments against the most recent influx of undocumented immigrants range from jobs being taken away from American workers to undocumented immigrants leeching off the system and/or bringing crime into the area.  In addition, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of births by undocumented immigrants in the U.S., prompting many to question whether the 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to those born in the United States, should be altered.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, undocumented immigrants accounted for 1 in 12 births in the U.S. in 2008.  While there is room for debate on immigration, a fundamental fact remains; a vast majority of these individuals come to the United States to work.  Moreover, we as a nation have become increasingly dependent on these individuals to ensure that we have low-cost produce year-round, gardening services, house cleaning and other low cost services.

While many of us may criticize these individuals for not speaking English or argue that they are taking jobs away from Americans, English-speaking U.S. citizens are generally not lining up around the block to take these jobs, even in these tough economic times.  I suspect that the United Farm Workers “Take My Job” campaign has resulted in very few current field workers being displaced by unemployed U.S. workers.

Photo Credit: Flickr User Scazon

While the Arizona law was considered to be very reactionary and a vast majority of its statutes were dismissed by a federal judge, Utah has proposed a novel solution.  Rather than try to expel undocumented immigrants, Utah proposes to issue a guest worker visa instead.  This guest visa would be similar to the Bracero Program implemented by the U.S. and Mexico between 1942 and 1964, which allowed individuals from Mexico to work in the U.S. and then return to Mexico.  While the proposed law in Utah would face challenges—mainly that states cannot issue visas—it does offer a practical solution based on the premise that many firms would not be able to function without these workers.

There are numerous studies citing the economic benefits or lack thereof of undocumented immigrant workers.  It is still unclear from these studies whether these immigrants provide more in taxes than they draw in government services.  However, there are a couple of points worth noting regarding immigrants:

  • A quarter of engineering and technology companies started in the U.S. between 1995 and 2005 had at least one foreign-born founder.
  • In 2005, immigrant-founded companies produced $52 billion in revenue and employed 450,000 workers nationwide.
  • Almost 80 percent of immigrant-founded companies were in two industries: software and innovation/manufacturing services.
  • In Florida, Hispanics were the leading immigrant group in terms of the number of companies founded.  In Massachusetts, Israelis led.  In New Jersey, the leaders were Indians.

While we may find it easy to blame immigrants for a variety of economic and societal ills, the overall contribution of immigration has been a vastly positive experience for the U.S., both in terms of economics and society.

Photo Credit: Manny Proebster

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Posted by Daraius Irani

Hooray for Women!

March 25, 2010

Raquel

This past weekend, I had the wonderful opportunity to be a speaker at the Second Annual Harford County Women’s Conference.    I was asked to speak about the national and regional economy and how it will affect Harford County going forward.  The day was broken up into different topics relating to Women’s Health.  For example, Women’s Financial Health, Women’s Medical Health, Women’s Physical Needs and Women’s Emotional Health.  I was part of the Women’s Financial Health portion along with Kathy Wajer, Chief Financial Manager of Harford County Economic Development. While my presentation was a bird’s eye view of the economy, Kathy focused on more county-specific data and an overview of business activity.

The theme of my presentation was the 2010 Economic Outlook – Hump Day. So, what exactly does that mean?  My colleagues and I thought having a theme would be a clever way for us to summarize our sentiment for the economy.  Our feeling here at RESI is that 2010 can be categorized as Hump Day.  Meaning we may have gotten past those first rough few days of the week (in this case, 2008 and 2009), but we still have a way to go before we can get to that carefree weekend.  We must get over that hump, so to speak.

click here to view the presentation

The conference’s inclusion of a variety of different topics was a great way for women to gather pertinent information specific to them.  In particular, I thought the Women’s Medical Health portion was interesting and timely.  The first presenter, Leni Preston from the MD Women’s Coalition for HealthCare Reform spoke about the impact of the healthcare reform bill on the citizens of Maryland.  It was a rousing topic that garnered passionate feedback from attendees on the eve of a historical vote on healthcare reform.

Overall, I felt the conference was extremely informative and truly reflective of the issues that women must deal with in everyday life.   I’m already looking forward to attending next year to see what new and fresh topics are presented!

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Posted by Raquel Frye

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