TO TAX or TO CUT; that is the question

March 10, 2011

Daraius

Our nation and our state face enormous fiscal challenges ahead. The very essence of what government’s role should be is being questioned during these difficult economic times. Our nation is undergoing one of the most severe economic dislocations since the Great Depression and in the course of propping up the economy; the federal government has accumulated tremendous deficits. Moreover, many states have gotten used to the tax revenues generated from the pre-recession period but have yet to wean themselves off the spending patterns that grew to absorb those tax revenues. Many states find themselves with immense unfunded of underfunded pension and healthcare obligations. In some instances these obligations dwarf the current expenditures on the current employees in those agencies. Unfortunately, our nation’s and many states’ elected officials have refused to address these issues, preferring to “kick the can down the road”, or at least have attempted to delay until they are out of office. So our nation and states now stand at a crossroads in terms of our fiscal health and must ask the questions “to tax or to cut”.

While spending cuts and tax cuts seem to be very popular with those who believe that the government is already too large and needs to be scaled back significantly, the challenge will be to arrive at a political solution to this problem. However, the problem runs deeper than simply cutting taxes or spending. Our tax structure is highly inefficient, not in the sense that funds are lost or that there are too many tax collectors, but in the sense that the tax system encourages behavior that would not otherwise occur.

According to the Tax Foundation, Americans spend nearly 20 cents for every dollar collected in taxes on tax compliance. This tax compliance includes completing tax forms, seeking tax planning and filling out other paperwork.   According to the CATO institute, the cost of tax compliance is nearly 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or roughly $265 billion.

The complexity of the tax code not only interferes with economic planning, but has also fostered an entire industry segment that has devoted itself to assisting firms and individuals in aggressively avoiding taxes.

Moreover, due to the complex nature of the tax codes, these firms are able to exploit the loopholes which in turn push Congress to act to close those loopholes, which then creates more loopholes and the cycle goes on.

While our tax system is highly complex, the way government spends and allocates funds to achieve its goals is much more complex and perhaps inefficient. A recent Government Accounting Office (GAO) report finds that numerous federal agencies perform similar if not duplicative duties and have identical programs. According to the report, there are nearly three dozen agencies and sub-agencies in which there are duplicate and/or fragmented programs.  The agencies range from agriculture to defense to social services.  While many elected officials are bemoaning the excessive waste that is inherent in the federal government, the fact of the matter is that the report indicates that $100 billion to $200 billion is duplicative spending. Out of a $3.4 trillion budget, this duplicative spending amounts to less than 1 percent of the total budget.

It is clear the current tax system is a drag on the economy. Perhaps more tax revenue could be collected with a simplified tax code. In addition, how funds and programs are disbursed within the federal government can be characterized as inefficient. However, many elected officials want to avoid addressing these problems and go directly to cutting programs and cutting taxes as to avoid upsetting their constituencies. One of the roles of economists is to assist society in identifying efficient allocations of scarce resources among various competing interests. From this economist’s point of view, our current tax system and the waste within government needs be addressed before we decide to change our taxes or spending.


Are We There Yet? 2011 Economic Outlook Conference Wrap-Up

February 28, 2011

Raquel Frye

It’s a new year and a chance for us to present our yearly outlook for the economy. The Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI) hosted its 14th annual Economic Outlook Conference on February 16, 2011 at the BWI Hilton Hotel.  As in years past, the conference provided a platform to present RESI’s economic overview and forecast. The theme for this year’s conference was Are We There Yet? The phrase—commonly used by kids during long car trips—highlighted the question mark surrounding the economic recovery and our eagerness to finally bounce back from the woes that have afflicted over the last three years.

There are many indicators that help us gauge whether the economy is back on track and while many continue to show signs of distress (i.e. the labor market) the road ahead is looking a lot brighter than it was a year ago.  While we may not be “there” just yet, at least we know that we are not headed in the opposite direction anymore.  If you are interested in seeing the presentation and getting a little more detail please see this link.

As I indicated during my last post, this year, RESI participated in a crowd-sourcing activity that involved getting feedback from attendees regarding what they would do if they had power over fiscal, monetary and housing policies.   The top answers submitted by attendees were revealed family feud style.   In my opinion, it was a great opportunity to learn about what people feel are the best ways to tackle the significant challenges that we are facing. 

In addition to DECO staff, the program was composed of several other distinguished guests.  For instance, Robert Hannon, President and CEO of Anne Arundel Economic Development Corporation welcomed us to Anne Arundel County with some facts and jokes.  Following the outlook presentation, Kathleen Snyder, President and CEO of the Maryland Chamber of Commerce gave us an overview of this year’s legislative session and the bills that the Chamber was supporting and opposing.  Last but not least, David Beck, Senior Vice President and Regional Executive and Robert Carpenter, Lead Financial Economist both from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond gave a very educational presentation about the Reserve’s dual mandate of promoting price stability and full employment.  They began their segment by giving a broad overview of the Reserve’s policy options and provided data and graphs to illustrate how the Fed’s balance sheet has evolved since the beginning of the recession. 

While I thoroughly enjoyed all the speakers that day, my favorite people that day were a group of extremely bright students.   As a special treat, we had several members of an AP Economics course from Arundel High School in attendance.  As someone who cares about economics education, I was delighted to see a group of students who seemed so genuinely interested in the presentations and eager to ask eloquent and thought-provoking questions.  I can only hope that we’ll be seeing these young people joining the ranks of economists in the near future!


VIDEO: We Want You!

February 3, 2011

Raquel

To give us your opinion!  Have you ever fantasized about what policies you would put in place in order to get the economy rolling again?  No?! Perhaps it’s something that only we economists like to do in our spare time.  I know I have plenty of ideas and suggestions.

Of course, it’s easy to be an armchair quarterback when it comes to difficult decisions but I think having an open dialogue where ideas and policies are challenged and discussed is extremely important.   In order for policies to have a shot at being successful, they should not be formed in a vacuum far from the people who must deal with the repercussions on a daily basis.

As part of our Economic Outlook Conference this year, we are asking your opinion and we really want to hear it!  You know what they say – sharing is caring. When you register for the conference, please take a few minutes to fill out three brief questions. Your answers will be gathered and shared during the conference in a fun way (hint: it will involve audience participation).   Here are the questions as they appear on our conference page:

  • If you were in charge, what policies/programs/legislation would you put in place to lower unemployment?
  • If you were in charge what policies/programs/legislation would you put in place to lower the deficit?
  • How would you address the challenges facing the real estate market from underwater mortgages to the shadow inventory of homes?”

Even if you can’t attend this year’s conference (which is unfortunate) we are still seeking your input  You can submit your responses right away—HERE!

Check out what some local experts “would do” if they were in charge.

 

Hope to see you all at the Economic Outlook Conference on February 16th!


From an Economist’s point of view baggage fees are a GOOD idea

January 20, 2011

Daraius

As I began reflecting upon this past holiday season, I realized that many of us flew to our destination via commercial airlines and many of us not only paid for ourselves but for the privilege of having luggage accompany us to our final destination.   We have reacted indignantly when we have heard or read about another fee the airlines are charging us; from fees for boarding early or using the lavatory to fees for checking in luggage, including carry-on luggage.

However, as an economist, I applaud these efforts as airlines are establishing a pricing structure which enables consumers to choose the precise mix of airline services that fit their needs and budgets. From an economist’s view, this pricing structure is very efficient as it forces individuals to reveal their willingness to pay for different levels of services-remember, what did your parents always ask you before you left for a long car ride?  From an airlines perspective, the ability or the increased ability to charge a different price to each person depending on whether they prefer an aisle seat or emergency exit row seat, how many pieces of luggage they have, whether they want to eat and perhaps whether they want to use the bathroom or not better serves their bottom line.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2009 airlines racked up $13.5 billion in what are called a-la-carte fees, a 43% jump over the prior year. Leading the charge for the a-la-carte fees were United Airlines, American Airlines and Delta Airlines each racking up over $1.4 billion in 2009.  Moreover, these fees were the reason why many airlines were in the black in the most recent reporting period.  Many reports are surfacing that for 2011, the airlines may introduce (if they have not already) additional fees such as:

  • Infant fees
  • In person check in
  • Using a credit card
  • Checked bag fees by the pound
  • Name change fees
  • No more refunds if a fare goes down
  • Carry-on bag fees
  • Fare lock-in fees
  • Internet “convenience fee

While this trend is likely to continue for many airlines, some airlines are capitalizing on the ire of air passengers about this policy.  To wit, Southwest Air’s ad campaign of “bags fly free” or their newest ad revealing the fees that other airlines charge for changing your ticket seem to be working as Southwest has enjoyed another year of profitability , its 37th year of profitability.

Photo Credit: Southwest Airlines Flickr

So before you plan your next holiday, make sure you pack light, leave your baby at home, wear multiple layers of clothing and stuff your pockets with what you would have had in your carry- on bag, pay for the trip in cash, don’t book your ticket in person but don’t use the internet to book your ticket either.  Other than that, have a great flight!


The answer boils down to housing and mobility…

October 26, 2010

Daraius

In the social circles that I often move in and amidst the cacophony of sounds one hears in most establishments that serve adult beverages , many individuals upon finding out what I do for a living ask me “when is the unemployment rate going to fall?”  After giving my usual two handed speech which leaves many individuals looking somewhat bewildered, I tell them it boils down to the housing market.

The goal of increasing the homeownership rate has been on the agenda of both the Republican and Democrat parties for many decades.  Both sides cite studies that supported the notion that increasing the homeownership rate will ensure stability in the communities as many homeowners mow their lawns on Saturday morning (not too early), crime would go down, and essentially all of the societal ills ascribed to a transient population would be eliminated.   As a result, many communities resisted through zoning or other means building additional rental units and pushed builders to build single family homes or townhomes.

However, we have traditionally been a nation built on mobility-“Go West Young Man” was a motto well into the 20th century.  Moreover, this credo of mobility has enabled the workforce to move to where the jobs are and has resulted in the US economy enjoying continued growth and prosperity.   The great recession as it is now being titled had its origins in the housing crash and as a result profoundly changed the mobility of the workforce.

In regions of the country that are experiencing a nascent economic recovery, finding skilled workers has been challenging and in many  cases these positions  remain unfilled as ideal candidates are stuck in other regions of the country with a house they cannot sell. To be clear, it is often not the case that they cannot sell their home; it is more likely that if they are able to sell their homes they would still owe a substantial amount to the bank. It has been stated that at least 20% of the homes are underwater in terms of their mortgage in the US.   In this credit conscious society, abandoning your home to the bank, often referred to as a strategic default will not only affect the individuals’ ability to borrow again, but will affect their ability to get a job. The amounts are non-trivial often amounting to tens of thousands of dollars or more.

As a young child when I came across a deep hole, I would toss a rock in it and wait for the familiar splash of water, letting me gauge how deep the hole was.  I suspect that when it comes to the housing market, many people are on the edge of that hole waiting for the sound of the splash.  However, outside of the fact that the number one asset of most individuals has lost anywhere between 10% and 50% of its pre recession value, the lack of recovery in this market will continue to prevent labor from moving where it is needed and this one of the many reasons why unemployment will continue to remain persistently high in many locations for the foreseeable future.


MEDA’s Fall Conference on the Maryland Health Care Industry

October 6, 2010

Thomas

On October 21st, 2010 the Maryland Economic Development Association (MEDA) will organize a conference on the business of health care in Maryland – a timely topic as 2010 has been marked with intense discussion on the enactment of a sweeping federal health care law (i.e. the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act or Obamacare).   The conference though will not focus on the new regulations made by the new health care bill but the Maryland health care industry and its economic impact on the state economy.

I communicated with MEDA’s Executive Director Pamela Ruff to learn more about MEDA.  MEDA is a nonprofit organization of economic development professionals.  Their mission is to enhance the knowledge and skills of its members and encourages partnerships and networking among those committed to bringing jobs and investment to Maryland.  Established in 1961, MEDA members promote the economic well being of Maryland by working to improve the state’s business climate and the professionalism of those in the field of economic development. Towson University is a member and sponsor of MEDA and Dyan Brasington—the Vice President for Economic and Community Outreach (DECO) at Towson University—is a past president of MEDA and currently serves as the Chair of the Council of Past Presidents.  The MEDA membership includes economic development practitioners employed by government, business, chambers of commerce and other professionals with an interest in the economy of Maryland.  Through its regular meetings, special programs and projects, members address such diverse issues as local planning, workforce, transportation, international trade, tourism and finance.

The Fall 2010 Conference (the Business of Health Care – An Economic Driver for Maryland) may be attended by anyone interested in the health care industry, ranging from an IT development, real estate development, research, or service perspective.  The conference will include several speakers from the private, academic and public sectors providing facts on the Maryland health care industry and diverse opinions on possibilities and challenges for businesses to grow in the health care industry.  The health care industry in Maryland is indeed a large one as the employment level in the health care and social assistance sector was almost 319,000 in 2009 (representing 13% of total Maryland employment), employment growth from 2008 To 2009 was 3.2% (one of the few sectors to add jobs in the State) and the industry generated 8% of total Maryland GDP in 2008.   After an overview of the industry in Maryland, the conference will include two subsequent panels:

  • Healthcare businesses – Info Tech (IT) opportunities and Hurdles
  • How the healthcare and bio industries are developing

The conference will conclude with a luncheon keynote on the challenges and opportunities of Maryland’s health care delivery system.

While most of the discussion in media nowadays is on laws and regulations in the health care industry, this conference is more centered on business opportunities and job growth occurring in the sector.  The conference will be a great opportunity to learn more about the opportunities and challenges of the Maryland health care industry as well as network with influential professionals who have years of expertise in the sector.


Examining the immigration debate from a workforce-economics perspective

September 13, 2010

Dr. Daraius Irani

Immigration has been a contentious issue since the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock and declared this land their land.  Therefore, it is not unusual that the issue of immigration has been raised recently, most notably with the passage of the law in Arizona requiring police officers to check the immigrant status of individuals.  Many politicians from around the nation have proposed ordinances for their states or localities declaring them a non-sanctuary site or emulating the new law in Arizona.

Arguments against the most recent influx of undocumented immigrants range from jobs being taken away from American workers to undocumented immigrants leeching off the system and/or bringing crime into the area.  In addition, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of births by undocumented immigrants in the U.S., prompting many to question whether the 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to those born in the United States, should be altered.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, undocumented immigrants accounted for 1 in 12 births in the U.S. in 2008.  While there is room for debate on immigration, a fundamental fact remains; a vast majority of these individuals come to the United States to work.  Moreover, we as a nation have become increasingly dependent on these individuals to ensure that we have low-cost produce year-round, gardening services, house cleaning and other low cost services.

While many of us may criticize these individuals for not speaking English or argue that they are taking jobs away from Americans, English-speaking U.S. citizens are generally not lining up around the block to take these jobs, even in these tough economic times.  I suspect that the United Farm Workers “Take My Job” campaign has resulted in very few current field workers being displaced by unemployed U.S. workers.

Photo Credit: Flickr User Scazon

While the Arizona law was considered to be very reactionary and a vast majority of its statutes were dismissed by a federal judge, Utah has proposed a novel solution.  Rather than try to expel undocumented immigrants, Utah proposes to issue a guest worker visa instead.  This guest visa would be similar to the Bracero Program implemented by the U.S. and Mexico between 1942 and 1964, which allowed individuals from Mexico to work in the U.S. and then return to Mexico.  While the proposed law in Utah would face challenges—mainly that states cannot issue visas—it does offer a practical solution based on the premise that many firms would not be able to function without these workers.

There are numerous studies citing the economic benefits or lack thereof of undocumented immigrant workers.  It is still unclear from these studies whether these immigrants provide more in taxes than they draw in government services.  However, there are a couple of points worth noting regarding immigrants:

  • A quarter of engineering and technology companies started in the U.S. between 1995 and 2005 had at least one foreign-born founder.
  • In 2005, immigrant-founded companies produced $52 billion in revenue and employed 450,000 workers nationwide.
  • Almost 80 percent of immigrant-founded companies were in two industries: software and innovation/manufacturing services.
  • In Florida, Hispanics were the leading immigrant group in terms of the number of companies founded.  In Massachusetts, Israelis led.  In New Jersey, the leaders were Indians.

While we may find it easy to blame immigrants for a variety of economic and societal ills, the overall contribution of immigration has been a vastly positive experience for the U.S., both in terms of economics and society.

Photo Credit: Manny Proebster


Is Maryland the tax hell that many in business portray?

May 6, 2010

Dr. Daraius Irani

It is often said that first impressions last for a lifetime.  In the past, many believed that Maryland had the motto “If you can dream it, we can tax it” as its tax policy while also being surrounded by states that had the perception of lower taxes and perhaps a more business-friendly climate.  Unfortunately many individuals believe that Maryland still abides by this motto.  This may actually be more perception than reality.

Admittedly, recent actions by Maryland’s government have done little to dispel the notion that Maryland is a high-tax state with the increase in sales tax and the millionaire’s income tax rate as well as the proposed tax on computer services.  This even crossed political lines with the so-called flush tax enacted by Maryland’s former Republican governor.

While many pundits recommend lower taxes to state policy makers, many feel this is a far too simplistic approach.  According to the Tax Foundation, an ideal tax policy should yield a tax system that is simple, transparent, stable, neutral to business activity and pro-growth.  In this tax system, tax payers would ultimately base their decisions on the economic merits of their transactions and not on the tax implications.

Many institutes publish lists and articles that rank states according to their tax climate, effective tax rates and the burden of government as a means to gauge a state’s tax system and business climate.  Such studies often show conflicting statistics because they rarely compare “apples to apples”.

  • According to the Tax Foundation’s “2010 State Business Tax Climate,” Maryland ranks 45th worst in the nation in terms of its business tax climate, as compared to 25th in fiscal year 2006.
  • However, in a 2010 Ernst and Young report “Total State and Local Business Taxes,” Maryland was ranked 11th in the nation when considering the total effective business tax rate.
  • Moreover, over the period 2005 to 2009, only 17.5 percent of the change in taxes was borne by businesses in Maryland as compared to a national average of 46.7 percent.  In fact, in only one other state was this share lower.

As you can see, measurements and analyses are not without their own shortcomings and detractors.  Some food for thought,

  1. These analyses do not account for the possibility that high taxes may also result in high levels of public services. For instance, there is a high degree of correlation with Maryland’s number one public school ranking in the US with its purportedly high tax rate.
  2. Many other states rely on fees rather than taxes. For example, while South Carolina is a fairly low income tax state, it relies heavily on user fees to finance the state expenditures.

While all of these indices and measurements provide valuable information, they still do not provide the answer to the question of whether Maryland is a high tax state.  To determine the answer, perhaps the more fundamental question of whether the current tax policy in Maryland meets the standard of an ideal tax system should be examined.

So, while this blog did not answer the question of whether Maryland is a high tax state or not, it did illustrate one fact: that the analysis of state tax policy should not be based upon changing the relative rankings, but supporting a tax policy that favors no one, is easy to understand and encourages business to grow and engage in transactions for their economic merits and not their tax implications.


Short Analysis of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

April 27, 2010

Thomas

Friday April 30th marks the end of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, a policy enacted in 2009 by the Federal Government.  In an effort to spur housing sales, the government allowed first time home buyers to receive up to $8,000 in tax credit if they enter a binding contract by April 30th 2010 and settle by June 30th 2010.  What I wanted to know was whether this policy had an effect on the struggling housing market.

The latest data seem to show that the policy may have helped stimulate the housing market as the number of homes sales has been on the rise.

  • For example, the seasonally-adjusted estimate of the number of new single-family houses sales increased by 26.9 % from February to March, and 23.8 % from March 2009, according to Census Bureau, as new homeowners may have rushed to enter a contract before the credit expires.
  • And, in Maryland, the number of not seasonally-adjusted homes sales increased from 54.1 % from February to March and 29.3 % from March 2009 to March 2010, according to the Maryland Association of Realtors.
  • Therefore, many indicators seem to indicate that people are taking advantage of the credit and the housing market may have been revived.

However, there is a caveat to the good news, as the winter snow may have led to this sudden uptick.  Most markets experienced a decline in housing sales from January to February.

  • For example, the estimate of the number of new single-family houses sales decreased 2.2 %, according to Census Bureau.  The Maryland Association of Realtors also reported that housing sales decreased slightly in Maryland from 2,897 in January to 2,809 in February.
  • Therefore, there is evidence that people may have delayed signing any contracts to March due to the snow.
  • In addition, the estimate is far lower than during the peak of the housing bubble.  The March 2010 Census Bureau estimate of the number of new single-family house sales, for example, was 71.3% lower compared to March 2005.
  • Also, the inventory of houses available for sale is still large as well as the number of foreclosed houses.  In Maryland, the inventory has remained the same through 2009 and the beginning of 2010, between 39,000 and 45,000 units.  The number is largely above the pre-housing market bubble when the inventory was under 25,000 units.

The First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit may have helped the housing market from further depression in the short term as the latest data showed a sale increase.  However, the recent uptick may have been due to the winter storm and people buying now to take advantage of the end of the Tax Credit.  Also, the number of sales is markedly below the peak of the housing market bubble while many people still have their houses on the market.  The end of the Tax Credit may mean that the housing market may struggle even more with fewer housing sales.  However, it may also mean that prospective home buyers may find even better deal as home sellers will need to slash price to compete.



The Seven W’s of Towson University’s 2010 Showcase: “Partnerships 2.0″

March 15, 2010

Bobbie

With the promise of spring around the corner, we at Towson University have been feeling more energized to continue strengthening our relationships with the outside business community. One way we will do this is by hosting a free event entitled the 2010 Showcase: “Partnerships 2.0”. This annual event will feature over 15 exhibitors that are interested in partnering with you to provide solutions for your department, agency, or business.

Here are the seven W’s to help introduce you to the Showcase:

Who: Towson University’s cutting-edge and community driven researchers and faculty

What: The 3rd annual Showcase “Partnerships 2.0.” The event is free of cost!

Where: Minnegan Room at Johnny Unitas Stadium, Towson University

When: April 14, 2010 from 12:00 pm until 2:00 pm

Why: The Showcase brings together Towson University faculty and researchers to spotlight projects in collaboration with businesses and government agencies that benefit the citizens of this region.

This year, we will also have relevant speakers to provide additional interesting content.

  • Dr. Val Emery, Army Research Laboratory, will discuss federal funding opportunities for innovation and collaboration associated with BRAC

Who should attend: Business Leaders, Economic Developers, Government/Nonprofit Managers, reporters and/or columnists interested in the areas of Human Services, GIS, Workforce Development, Applied Economics, IT Solutions, and more!

Website: Check it out and register today! www.towson.edu/showcase

We hope to see you at the Showcase! Feel free to contact me, Bobbie, at outreach@towson.edu with any questions.


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