AAA and Fiscal Policy

December 5, 2011

Daraius

Many people mock the two-armed economists, especially as these economists pontificate on the effectiveness of the most recent fiscal and monetary policy solutions to the great contraction. However, this economist firmly believes that the fiscal policy solutions proffered by both parties can and should coexist as they address two fundamentally different problems in our economy—contracting short-term economic growth and sustaining long-term economic growth.

The first and most immediate problem was present when President Obama took office in February 2009; the economy was heading south rapidly. The only indicators which were rising were foreclosures and unemployment.  Our nation was in an economic death spiral. Something needed to be done quickly to stimulate the economy; please note the choice of word: “stimulate,” not “sustain.” I argue, “go big or go home” in regard to the stimulus. (Obviously, my opinion was not sought on this question.) This situation is analogous to discovering your car battery has died. You call AAA to jump start your car. This is a short-term solution as you will buy a new battery rather than continually hope for the timely availability of AAA to jump start your car each time you decide to drive.

At the core of the Republican economic policy, corporations—which believe they have a God-given right to pollute, pay their workers what they want, ship jobs overseas, and pay no taxes, yet they expect subsidies for bringing low-paying jobs to a region, demand a highly educated workforce, and expect that their industry receives federal subsidies for their product—are calling for smaller government, lower taxes, and less regulation. While I agree with these core principles for the most part, I do have qualms about getting rid of regulations. There are numerous anecdotal stories about how government regulations stifled businesses, but we are currently experiencing what happens when there is too little government regulation—mortgage crisis, Deepwater horizon, Bernie Madoff, and Enron, just to name a few.

Photo credit: Renjith Krishnan

My editorializing notwithstanding, the Republican economic platform makes perfect sense to sustain our economy over the long haul. Less is more. The role of the government is to ensure that property rights are safeguarded, laws are passed and obeyed, individuals can engage in commerce freely, and tax policy does not discourage individuals from working harder. On the other hand, the Democratic platform of spending like drunken sailors on leave makes perfect sense to stimulate the economy. Both policies can coexist and should be implemented.

What is stifling a speedy economic recovery vis-à-vis fiscal policy is the uncertainty of government action. When Congress cannot pass a budget until the very last minute with threat of a government shutdown looming or are willing to allow the U.S. to be downgraded, a great deal of uncertainty is created. And while uncertainty makes for exciting movies, novel endings, and thrill rides, it is completely inappropriate for long-term business planning. This is the environment in which we are currently, and until both parties realize that their policies can coexist and that acceptance of one or the other does not imply that they are violating their core political beliefs, the economy will continue to limp along.


Black Friday Provides a Rosy Outlook

December 1, 2011
Raquel

Raquel

The holiday season kicks off with Black Friday and this year U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving weekend climbed 16 percent as shoppers flocked to stores earlier and spent more, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). NRF reported that sales totaled $52.4 billion, and the average shopper spent $398.62 (up from $365.34 a year earlier). According to ShopperTrak—a firm which tallies retail and mall foot-traffic—this year marked the highest year-over-year gain for Black Friday activity since the 8.3 percent increase between 2007 and 2006.

If consumers are in fact a little less cautious in their spending this year it bodes well for many sectors of our economy.  Retailers are feeling optimistic that a combination of strong promotions and pent up demand will help drive sales throughout the holiday season.  NRF President and CEO, Matthew Shay agrees that the retail industry is in a better position this year than it was in 2008 and 2009. Increased confidence on the part of the retail industry is a positive sign for a gloomy employment situation.  According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 480,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this holiday season.  During this time, retail stores and delivery companies hire more staff to help deal with the deluge of holiday shopping and shipping.  Even resorts, hotels and restaurants hire additional staff to get extra help during the season.

Although these jobs are generally short-term and are relatively low-paying, there’s always a chance that some of those workers could secure long-term jobs in the future. Even during temporary employment stints, employers have the opportunity to identify workers they want to hire when the economy allows them. In addition, seasonal employment might give an individual experience and keep them relevant in the workforce.  During these tough economic times, a seasonal job could keep a paycheck coming—at least temporarily.  For those who are interested in turning a seasonal job into something more permanent, the opportunity may be there.  A temporary gig could give an individual a chance to highlight their skill sets and work ethic which will set them apart from other candidates in the future.

Bob Englehart, The Hartford Courant


Two Steps Forward, One Step Back. The 2011 Economic Outlook Conference Wrap-Up

November 10, 2011
Raqie;

Raquel

The Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI) hosted its 15th annual Economic Outlook Conference on November 9th, 2011 at the Towson University West Village Commons. As in the past, the conference provided a platform to present RESI’s economic overview and forecast. The title for this year’s economic outlook was Two Steps Forward, One Step Back .  The title reflects this year’s economic news cycle which seemed to provide us with a sense of positive forward momentum one minute and then just as quickly took that momentum away with the next data release.

Aside from the economic outlook for the year, this year’s conference focused on the implications of the 2010 Census Data.  Department of Planning Secretary Richard Hall and economist Mark Goldstein gave a thorough review of the data as it pertains to Maryland and its jurisdictions. Highlights included the significant increase in the population of people 55 and over and the growing Hispanic population in the state (percent change of 106.5 percent since 2000).

For the rest of the event, experts from many different sectors of the economy discussed the impact of the data on matters such as government services, the business community, workforce development and higher education. View photos from the entire conference.

In particular, they discussed the challenges of a changing demographic profile on their particular area of expertise.  Some of the challenges discussed included the need to cater to different languages and cultural customs, an aging population and the increased demand for higher education (and the challenges students face in financing that education).  I thought the Conference provided attendees with many significant take-aways and nuggets of information.  All the material presented and the discussions that took place will be important in preparing for the challenges the state will face as a result of its changing demographics and growing population.

It’s always incredibly fun and rewarding working on the preparation for the Conference and I’m already looking forward to developing the theme for next year’s event. Hope to see there!

Economic Outlook Conference

Dr. Daraius Irani presents to a capacity crowd


VIDEO: Education Meets the Workforce – Student Interns Get Hands-on GIS Experience

October 11, 2011

Jenn

Our newest Education Meets the Workforce video features student interns from Towson University’s Center for GIS. The interns, Justin Mannion, James Parmeter, and Alex Stapleton, work closely together on data collection processes in connection with the Maryland Broadband Map project. The Maryland Broadband Map allows residential and business consumers to discover the high-speed Internet services and providers in their neighborhood, anywhere in Maryland.

Watch the video to learn more about how the interns are contributing to the Maryland Broadband Map Project and to other projects at CGIS.


Video: University Economic Devleopment Association (UEDA) Summit 2011

September 21, 2011

Bobbie

The Division of Economic and Community Outreach (DECO) is home to a wide array of centers that provide solutions ranging from GIS to Economic Forecasting, additionally DECO has a diverse set of partner organizations that are committed to sharing best practices.  University Economic Development Association (UEDA) is a national organization of higher education, business and economic development professionals. UEDA provides learning opportunities, comprehensive representation of entire education landscape and open networks for collaboration and opportunities.

One of the learning opportunities UEDA is best known for is the Annual Summit where attendees can

  • Gain the latest strategic insights on the roles of colleges and universities in economic development.
  • Examine the leading practices of colleagues as they compete for Awards of Excellence.
  • Build learning networks of colleagues to spot opportunities faster and develop partnerships faster.
  • Share success stories and lessons learned with economic developers from colleges and universities nationwide.

In the video below, Leslie Pachol, UEDA’s executive director, talks with our very own Dyan Brasington about the upcoming UEDA Summit.


RESI’s Fall 2011 Economic Outlook Conference at Towson University

September 7, 2011

Raquel Frye

It’s a busy time here at RESI as preparations for the November 9th Economic Outlook Conference get underway.  This conference is particularly exciting for us since it will be the first time since 1999 that it is hosted on campus.  We are really looking to hosting the event this year and taking advantage of the newest building on campus – the West Village Commons building.  Implications of the 2010 Census Data will be the central focus of the day with a variety of experts weighing in on the impact of the data on matters such as government services, the business community, workforce development and higher education.  Looking forward to seeing you there!


Ladies and Gentlemen Start Your Engines: Economic Impact of the Baltimore Grand Prix

August 29, 2011

Daraius

Soon the roar of Grand Prix racing will fill the streets of Baltimore over Labor Day weekend under the auspices of the IZOD IndyCar series.  In total, there are 19 scheduled races this year of which five are held on the streets of their host city rather than a speedway.  While there has been some controversy surrounding this event, it is my opinion that this event will provide a boost to the City’s name and bottom line. 

As it stands, Baltimore City is already becoming a destination choice among many visitors.  Events such as the Baltimore Running Festival, various soccer and lacrosse matches and Artscape provide diverse activities for visitors.  In addition, with the presence of the Orioles, Ravens, the Hippodrome Theater and various museums, there are plenty of opportunities for visitors to enjoy Baltimore’s cultural, recreational and entertainment offerings.

According to the Economic Impact Report published by Baltimore Racing Development, LLC, Baltimore’s Grand Prix and related events are slated to bring over 100,000 visitors to the City.  Visitors attending the event are expected to generate over $70 million in spending on things such as hotel rooms, food and beverage, transportation and other entertainment. In addition, the City is expected to gain $2.2 million dollars in tax revenues.

Photo credit: Baltimore Business Journal

While the three day event has the potential to bring in a lot of new visitors to the area for the event, the real impact will be in terms of the marketing and outreach for the City of Baltimore. For example, races will be broadcast to a national and international audience.  The media exposure and branding of the City as a Grand Prix destination will have long-lasting and reverberating effects.   In a report regarding the San Jose Grand Prix, the estimated value of media exposure for that city was valued at $4.6 million.  Baltimore’s Grand Prix is expected to have a larger audience and races will get TV coverage on major networks such as ABC and ESPN.  In addition to the race coverage, a documentary based on the behind-the-scenes efforts to put on the race will be broadcast on September 11th.

If Baltimore is lucky, the city’s experience will mirror the success of the Long Beach Grand Prix.  The Long Beach event, which began as a small Formula 5000 street race, recently celebrated its 38th straight year and brings more than 200,000 spectators to the area.  I believe Baltimore has the ability to succeed in this venture.  Some of the City’s best landmarks and spectacular views—including the inner harbor and Camden Yards—will be front and center during the whole event.  I would be surprised if that wasn’t enough to put Baltimore on many people’s radar.


VIDEO: When Construction Meets Economics (Education Meets the Workforce)

August 8, 2011

Jenn

This marks my first blog post on TUOutreach.com. As you will see below, I will be introducing you to the latest video in our Education Meets the Workforce series, which features student interns.

Being a recent graduate and former student employee of Towson University, I am able to reflect on my experience. Not only was I learning about marketing and communication in my coursework at Towson University, but I was able to apply what I was learning in a non-academic setting. In other words, I was able to break down the barrier between “academia” and “the real world.”

I recently had the opportunity to participate in an interview with one of TU’s current student interns, Chaz Kerrigan. Through the interview with Chaz, I found that he too valued his experience as a student intern here at TU. Chaz’ internship is with the Maryland Center for Construction Education and Innovation (MCCEI), which is a non-profit entity that promotes the importance of the construction industry in Maryland.

Chaz defines himself as a “utility intern”, meaning that he performs many different hands-on roles at MCCEI. He is involved with managing databases that contain information about training and education for the industry, and he also assists MCCEI with demand studies, which relates to his major: economics. This experience is providing Chaz with real world experience, networking opportunities, exposure to companies within the local construction market, and the chance to see how economic principles are applied in the industry.


One week to go…the debt ceiling debate

July 28, 2011

Raquel Frye

The hottest news story these days is the August 2nd deadline to raise the debt ceiling. The deadline has been set by the Treasury department because after this date, it cannot guarantee payment of all the government’s billions of dollars in monthly obligations.   In other words, if the amount that the U.S. is allowed to borrow is not increased, the nation will not be able to pay its bills.  To put things into perspective, the current debt limit (or ceiling) is set at 14.3 trillion dollars.   We actually hit that limit earlier this year and are currently relying on temporary measures to get around this technicality.    If the U.S. is not able to borrow more money, it will have to choose which obligations to pay.  The list of obligations is long and includes things such as Social Security benefits, interest payments on the national debt, Medicaid and Medicare payments, unemployment benefits as well as federal worker and military salaries.  As you can imagine, trying to decide what is the priority in that list is extremely difficult.

The possibility of the nation defaulting on payments has not gone unnoticed.  Moody’s Investors Service—the credit rating agency—is threatening to reduce the U.S. government’s Aaa bond rating if the debt ceiling is not raised and the nation defaults on its obligations.  Nobody can really foresee what the impact of a credit rating downgrade would mean for the economy.  Some speculate that the downgrade would have very little impact as much of the U.S. debt is held by pension funds and central banks that are not heavily influenced by rating agencies.  On the other hand, others agree that a downgrade could mean a weaker dollar and higher interest rates which could spell trouble for the fragile economy.

Although dealing with the possibility of default is urgent, what is more important is dealing with the long-term problem of the national debt (which is why we need to borrow in the first place).  Just like households have had to make difficult decisions regarding their spending and debt over the last couple of years, the same thing must happen at the government level.  Making the process even more problematic, the government is trying to make difficult choices amid a tight and looming deadline.  Currently, there are two plans to raise the debt limit and cut the deficit:  one plan has been devised by the Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner and one from Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  Several very daunting hurdles remain for both plans, but as of last night, Speaker John Boehner’s plan seemed to be nearing the number of votes necessary to pass the House (217).  If it does pass, the hard part will not be over.  The most challenging part will begin once the bill enters the Senate and encounters Senate Majority Harry Reid’s competing plan.

Photo Credit: Associated Press


Maryland’s Business Climate—the factors and how we rank!

July 20, 2011

Daraius

As I have written in the past, Maryland is viewed (fairly or unfairly) as having a poor or less than friendly business climate.  Some have suggested that Maryland’s motto is “If You Can Dream It, We Can Tax It” which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a business friendly state.   First what determines the business climate and is someone or some entity measuring the business climate?

According the International Economic Development Council (IEDC), the essence of a business climate is “how states state, regional and local policies, relationships and local communities support business development.”   What are some of the major factors associated with a business climate according to IEDC?

Major Factors

1. Business and income tax levels
Business and income tax levels allow prospective businesses to gauge their investments when seeking places to expand or incorporate. According to the Tax Foundation’s 2011 State Business Tax Climate Index (8th Edition), “States with the best tax systems will be the most competitive in attracting new businesses and most effective at generating economic and employment growth.”

2. Workforce availability
This factor does not necessarily need to focus on the amount of able body individuals a state currently has but rather the skill level of those within the state. Maryland’s accessibility and continued efforts to support technology driven education will continue to make us a viable contender with other surrounding metro areas. The Kauffman Foundation (New Economy Index) commented on the technology driven workforce stating, “…(states with) a solid innovation infrastructure that fosters and supports technological innovation, and many(of the highly ranked states) have a good quality of life coupled with high levels of domestic and foreign immigration of highly skilled knowledge workers.”

3.  Energy costs
A hotbed issue right now, rising energy costs not only are seen harboring our monthly electric bills but also at the gas pumps. Continually rising energy costs are added into the final cost of a product, often assisting in the loss of possible consumers. Maryland currently is ranked in the Small Business and Entrepreneurship (SBE) Energy Cost Index (2010) as being one of the highest energy cost states along with New Jersey (rank 44), Washington, D.C. (rank 42), and Delaware (rank 38) overall.

4.  Market size
The Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development’s 2008 Kentucky Business Climate report
referred to this factor as “market access.” The more accessible the state can be to either employees via public transportation, or business imports we will continue to see a growth in those that wish to invest in developing within Maryland borders. Factors such as roadway miles, number of airports, and waterway access are just a few factors that attract new business to states.

5. Cost of living
Cost of living plays a crucial role in exhibiting key trends that will decide if a state has a “good” business climate. States with lower costs of living allow residents to feel the significant increase in their purchasing power as opposed to those states that have high costs of living, per IECD’s key findings.

Other Contributing Factors

  • Quality of life
  • Environmental regulation
  • Permitting, licensing, and various reporting regulations
  • Real estate costs and availability
  • Infrastructure
  • Access to financing and capital
  • Incentive
  • Quality of services

So how does Maryland measure up?

Factor Indication Rating/Rate
Business Tax Levels State Business Tax Climate Index 4.25 (Rank 44)
Workforce Availability New Economy Index 3rd (MA ranked 1, NJ-4, DE-6, PA-22)
Income Tax Levels (State) Comptroller of Maryland MD 2.00-6.25%
DE 2.2-6.95%
PA 3.07%
VA 2.0-5.75%
D.C. 4.0-8.5%
Energy Costs SBE Council Energy Cost Index 39 (tied with Maine, DE-38)
Cost of Living MERIC Composite Cost of Living 44 (VA-24, PA-32, DE-35, DC-50)

So it would seem that Maryland faces some challenges to its business climate, but at least our state motto is not Massachusetts’ motto “Our Taxes Are Lower than Sweden’s (For Most Tax Brackets)”.


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.